Former federal cabinet minister Chris Alexander has ended his campaign for Toronto mayor just as new polling shows Olivia Chow’s lead over Brad Bradford narrowing considerably.
Toronto’s 2026 mayoral election took a significant turn when Chris Alexander announced that he was dropping out of the race, just half an hour before advance voting was set to begin.
Alexander, who previously served as a Conservative Member of Parliament and federal cabinet minister, had been polling in third place behind incumbent Mayor Olivia Chow and Councillor Brad Bradford.
According to CityNews, Alexander’s departure also came just hours before a scheduled mayoral debate at Toronto Metropolitan University. With Alexander no longer actively campaigning, the debate became a head-to-head contest between Chow and Bradford.
Source: CityNews, “Chris Alexander drops out of Toronto mayoral race,” October 6, 2026.
New Poll Shows Chow at 46%, Bradford at 42%
Alexander’s announcement came on the same day that new polling suggested Toronto’s mayoral race may be getting considerably closer.
A Forum Research poll conducted October 6 found Olivia Chow with 46% support among decided and leaning voters, while Brad Bradford received 42%. Another 12% of respondents selected another candidate.
The survey included 1,604 Toronto residents and carried a reported margin of error of plus or minus 2.45 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The four-point difference is particularly notable when compared with Forum Research’s previous Toronto mayoral poll.
On September 25, Forum had Chow at 46% and Bradford at 35%, an 11-point gap. Chris Alexander received 6% in that earlier survey.
In less than two weeks, the difference between Chow and Bradford in Forum’s polling therefore narrowed from 11 percentage points to four.
Polling is a snapshot of voter intentions at a particular point in time and does not predict the final election result. The latest numbers nevertheless indicate a substantially closer contest in Forum’s polling than the firm recorded in September.
Sources: CityNews, “Chow’s lead over Bradford narrows to 4 points in Toronto mayoral race, latest poll shows,” October 6, 2026; Forum Research, “Olivia Chow Remains Frontrunner for Toronto Mayor Amid Voter Concerns Over Affordability and City Conditions,” September 25, 2026.
What Happens to Alexander’s Support?
Alexander had been running behind the two leading candidates, but his departure introduces another question into the race: where will voters who had previously been considering Alexander go now?
There is no guarantee that those voters will move together toward either Chow or Bradford. Some may choose another candidate, some may remain undecided and others may ultimately decide not to vote.
For Bradford, the latest Forum numbers show a considerably smaller gap than the polling firm measured in September. For Chow, the latest poll still places her in first place, but with a narrower advantage.
With advance voting already underway, the campaigns now have limited time to persuade voters who have not yet made their decision.
Advance Voting Is Underway Across Toronto
Toronto residents do not have to wait until Election Day to cast their ballots.
Advance voting began on Tuesday, October 6 and continues through Sunday, October 11, with voting locations open from 10 a.m. to 7 p.m.
The City of Toronto is operating 50 advance voting locations, with two locations in each of Toronto’s 25 wards.
Election Day is Monday, October 26, 2026, with voting places open from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Source: City of Toronto, “Advance voting in Toronto’s 2026 municipal election begins tomorrow,” October 5, 2026.
361 Candidates Certified Across Toronto
The mayoral contest is only one part of Toronto’s municipal election.
The Toronto City Clerk certified 361 candidates for the 2026 election:
- 53 candidates for mayor
- 190 candidates for councillor
- 118 candidates for school board trustee
TorontoElections.com has completed another update of its candidate database to keep its active candidate listings in sync with the City of Toronto’s current official candidate information.
Source: City of Toronto, 2026 Toronto Municipal Election candidate information.
Compare Toronto’s Mayoral Candidates
With the race potentially becoming more competitive, voters may want to take a closer look at what the candidates have said about the issues facing Toronto.
TorontoElections.com has expanded its candidate information and launched a Compare Candidates feature that allows voters to review available sourced positions from mayoral candidates side by side.
The comparison includes major municipal issues such as:
- Housing
- Transit
- Property taxes and city finances
- Public safety
- Development and planning
- Environment
Candidate information is based on publicly available campaign materials, statements and other reliable sources. Where TorontoElections.com has not located a reliable sourced public position on a particular issue, the site identifies that rather than filling the gap with assumptions.
The Final Weeks Could Matter
There are still almost three weeks remaining before Election Day, and the political environment can change quickly.
Chris Alexander’s decision to end his campaign has changed the dynamics near the top of the mayoral race. At virtually the same time, Forum Research recorded a much smaller gap between Chow and Bradford than it had measured less than two weeks earlier.
That does not mean the election is tied, nor does one poll determine what will happen on October 26.
It does mean that Toronto voters have another reason to pay attention as ballots are already being cast through advance voting.
Explore Toronto’s candidates, compare their positions and find information about voting at TorontoElections.com.
Advance Voting: October 6-11, 2026, 10 a.m.-7 p.m.
Election Day: Monday, October 26, 2026, 10 a.m.-8 p.m.
Sources
- CityNews, “Chris Alexander drops out of Toronto mayoral race,” October 6, 2026.
- CityNews, “Chow’s lead over Bradford narrows to 4 points in Toronto mayoral race, latest poll shows,” October 6, 2026.
- Forum Research, “Olivia Chow Remains Frontrunner for Toronto Mayor Amid Voter Concerns Over Affordability and City Conditions,” September 25, 2026.
- City of Toronto, “Advance voting in Toronto’s 2026 municipal election begins tomorrow,” October 5, 2026.
- City of Toronto, 2026 Toronto Municipal Election candidate information.
TorontoElections.com
Your independent guide to Toronto’s municipal election.
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