Expected Tight Races (2026)

Data-driven analysis of potentially competitive wards

Methodology: This analysis identifies wards that may be competitive based on 2022 election data. Wards are included if they had a close outcome (margin under 20%) or if the incumbent councillor has left office or indicated they are not running again.

0 Potentially Competitive Wards

Based on 2022 election results and incumbent status

No competitive wards identified based on current criteria.

Methodology

This analysis identifies potentially competitive wards for the 2026 election using objective, data-driven criteria based on the 2022 municipal election results.

A ward is considered potentially competitive if:

  • The 2022 race had a close outcome (margin of victory under 20%), indicating a competitive electorate, OR
  • The incumbent councillor elected in 2022 has left office or publicly indicated they are not running again, creating an open seat

Important notes: This analysis is based solely on historical data and incumbent status. It does not account for candidate quality, campaign strength, local issues, demographic changes, or other factors that may influence competitiveness. Races not listed here may still be competitive, and listed races may not materialize as close contests.

Data source: City of Toronto 2022 Municipal Election Official Results